Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.2166/nh.2011.104 |
Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting | |
Sharma, Ashish; Chowdhury, Shahadat | |
通讯作者 | Sharma, Ashish |
来源期刊 | HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0029-1277 |
EISSN | 2224-7955 |
出版年 | 2011 |
卷号 | 42期号:2-3页码:113-127 |
英文摘要 | This paper reviews two alternatives for reducing structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting. The first is a static ensemble average, illustrated here using the Multiple Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System, a nonparametric probabilistic forecasting model that relates streamflow to climate predictors, and generates monthly sequences of multi-site flow from the present for the coming 12 months. Instead of forming a single predictive relationship, multiple constituent models, each having their own unique predictor variable sets, are formed. A weighted probabilistic combination of these constituent models completes the static ensemble average. The second alternative is a dynamic ensemble average that allows constituent models to change importance with time, model weights evolving as a function of these weights at preceding time steps. Dynamic model combination is demonstrated here for first combining multiple sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts to produce a global sea surface temperature anomaly field, and then using the dynamically combined sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field to concurrently ascertain inflows at multiple locations in a semi-arid Australian catchment. The paper concludes by identifying scenarios under which one would expect to see improvements as a result of static or dynamic model combination, and provides suggestions for further research in this area. |
英文关键词 | dynamic combination model uncertainty probabilistic forecasting rainfall seasonal forecasting streamflow |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000288068900004 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; WATER-SUPPLY MANAGEMENT ; STREAMFLOW FORECASTS |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/168461 |
作者单位 | Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sharma, Ashish,Chowdhury, Shahadat. Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting[J],2011,42(2-3):113-127. |
APA | Sharma, Ashish,&Chowdhury, Shahadat.(2011).Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,42(2-3),113-127. |
MLA | Sharma, Ashish,et al."Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 42.2-3(2011):113-127. |
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