Arid
DOI10.2166/nh.2011.104
Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting
Sharma, Ashish; Chowdhury, Shahadat
通讯作者Sharma, Ashish
来源期刊HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
ISSN0029-1277
EISSN2224-7955
出版年2011
卷号42期号:2-3页码:113-127
英文摘要

This paper reviews two alternatives for reducing structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting. The first is a static ensemble average, illustrated here using the Multiple Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System, a nonparametric probabilistic forecasting model that relates streamflow to climate predictors, and generates monthly sequences of multi-site flow from the present for the coming 12 months. Instead of forming a single predictive relationship, multiple constituent models, each having their own unique predictor variable sets, are formed. A weighted probabilistic combination of these constituent models completes the static ensemble average. The second alternative is a dynamic ensemble average that allows constituent models to change importance with time, model weights evolving as a function of these weights at preceding time steps. Dynamic model combination is demonstrated here for first combining multiple sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts to produce a global sea surface temperature anomaly field, and then using the dynamically combined sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field to concurrently ascertain inflows at multiple locations in a semi-arid Australian catchment. The paper concludes by identifying scenarios under which one would expect to see improvements as a result of static or dynamic model combination, and provides suggestions for further research in this area.


英文关键词dynamic combination model uncertainty probabilistic forecasting rainfall seasonal forecasting streamflow
类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000288068900004
WOS关键词RAINFALL PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; WATER-SUPPLY MANAGEMENT ; STREAMFLOW FORECASTS
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/168461
作者单位Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sharma, Ashish,Chowdhury, Shahadat. Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting[J],2011,42(2-3):113-127.
APA Sharma, Ashish,&Chowdhury, Shahadat.(2011).Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,42(2-3),113-127.
MLA Sharma, Ashish,et al."Coping with model structural uncertainty in medium-term hydro-climatic forecasting".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 42.2-3(2011):113-127.
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