干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

This study presents an application of a well-calibrated integrative hydro-ecological model to examine water resources management in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, an arid and semiarid area in northwestern China. The hydro-ecological model was developed to simulate dynamic and accumulative hydrologic, ecologic, and economic variables at different spatial units. Four water management scenarios based on water use priorities, a business-as-usual scenario, an ecological scenario, an irrigation use efficiency scenario and water use scenario were designed and modeled over the period of 2011-2020 to reflect alternative water management pathways to the future. Water resource conditions were assessed in terms streamflow, actual evapotranspiration, soil water, groundwater yield, overall water yield, and derived indicator of drought index. Unit crop yield was to assess ecological production, and monetary values of crop productivity and water productivity were used to assess economic output. Scenario analysis results suggested that water stress would continue in the study region under both current water use patterns and ecological scenarios of river flow being fully satisfied. Water use scenarios would result in decreased water availability and ecosystem degradation in the long run. Improving irrigation use efficiency would be the most efficient approach in securing long-term water and food supply. The simulation results from this study provided useful information for evaluating long-term water resources management strategies, and will contribute to the knowledge of interdisciplinary modeling for water resources management in the study region.