Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1890/09-1800.1 |
Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction | |
Cole, Kenneth L.1; Ironside, Kirsten2; Eischeid, Jon3; Garfin, Gregg4; Duffy, Phillip B.5; Toney, Chris6 | |
通讯作者 | Cole, Kenneth L. |
来源期刊 | ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
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ISSN | 1051-0761 |
EISSN | 1939-5582 |
出版年 | 2011 |
卷号 | 21期号:1页码:137-149 |
英文摘要 | The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed; similar to 11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of; similar to 1 km and; similar to 4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species’ historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions. |
英文关键词 | climate change climate effects modeling extinct seed vectors Joshua tree Mohave Desert plant migration Yucca brevifolia |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000288850200012 |
WOS关键词 | YUCCA-BREVIFOLIA ; CLIMATE ; DIVERGENCE ; GREENLAND |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
来源机构 | University of Arizona ; United States Geological Survey ; E18 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/167784 |
作者单位 | 1.No Arizona Univ, Colorado Plateau Res Stn, USGS, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; 2.No Arizona Univ, Merriam Powell Ctr Environm Res, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA; 3.NOAA Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA; 4.Univ Arizona, Inst Environm, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA; 5.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Merced, CA 94550 USA; 6.USDA, Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Missoula, MT 59808 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cole, Kenneth L.,Ironside, Kirsten,Eischeid, Jon,et al. Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction[J]. University of Arizona, United States Geological Survey, E18,2011,21(1):137-149. |
APA | Cole, Kenneth L.,Ironside, Kirsten,Eischeid, Jon,Garfin, Gregg,Duffy, Phillip B.,&Toney, Chris.(2011).Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction.ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,21(1),137-149. |
MLA | Cole, Kenneth L.,et al."Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction".ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 21.1(2011):137-149. |
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