Arid
DOI10.1007/s10584-010-9954-y
Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates
Al-Qinna, Mohammed I.1; Hammouri, Nezar A.2; Obeidat, Mutewekil M.3; Ahmad, Fayez Y.2
通讯作者Al-Qinna, Mohammed I.
来源期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
出版年2011
卷号106期号:3页码:421-440
英文摘要

Droughts have adverse socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental impacts that can be reduced by assessing and forecasting drought behavior. The paper presents detailed analyses of both meteorological and vegetative droughts over the period from 1970 to 2005. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been used to quantify drought according to severity, magnitude and spatial distribution at the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Results suggest that the country faced during the past 35 years frequent non-uniform drought periods in an irregular repetitive manner. Drought severity, magnitudes and life span increased with time from normal to extreme levels especially at last decade reaching magnitudes of more than 4. Generated NDVI maps spatial analyses estimate crop-area percentage damage due to severe and extremely severe drought events occurred during October, December, and February of 2000 to be about 10%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. In response to drought spatial extent, the paper suggest the presence of two drought types, local drought acting on one or more geographical climatic parts and national drought, of less common but more severe, that extend over the whole country. Droughts in Jordan act intensively during January, February and March and tend to shift position with time by alternative migrations from southern desert parts to northern desert parts and from the eastern desert parts to highlands and Jordan Rift Valley (JRV) at the west. The paper also investigates the potential use of Global Climate Model’s (GCM) to forecast future drought events from 2010 till 2040. Tukey HSD test indicates that ECHAM5OM GCM is capable to predicted rainfall variation at the country and suggests future droughts to become more intensive at the northern and southern desserts with 15% rainfall reduction factor, followed by 10% reduction at the JRV, and 5% at the highlands.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Jordan
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000290448700005
WOS关键词MODEL OUTPUT ; HYDROLOGIC SIMULATIONS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; IMPACTS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/167631
作者单位1.Hashemite Univ, Dept Land Management & Environm, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Zarqa 13115, Jordan;
2.Hashemite Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Zarqa 13115, Jordan;
3.Jordan Univ Sci & Technol, Fac Sci & Arts, Dept Environm Sci, Irbid 22110, Jordan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Al-Qinna, Mohammed I.,Hammouri, Nezar A.,Obeidat, Mutewekil M.,et al. Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates[J],2011,106(3):421-440.
APA Al-Qinna, Mohammed I.,Hammouri, Nezar A.,Obeidat, Mutewekil M.,&Ahmad, Fayez Y..(2011).Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates.CLIMATIC CHANGE,106(3),421-440.
MLA Al-Qinna, Mohammed I.,et al."Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates".CLIMATIC CHANGE 106.3(2011):421-440.
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