Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.agee.2011.01.011 |
Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change | |
Freier, Korbinian P.1,2; Schneider, Uwe A.2; Finckh, Manfred3,4 | |
通讯作者 | Freier, Korbinian P. |
来源期刊 | AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT
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ISSN | 0167-8809 |
EISSN | 1873-2305 |
出版年 | 2011 |
卷号 | 140期号:3-4页码:462-472 |
英文摘要 | Integrated scientific assessments of semi-arid agroecosystems with mathematical models are challenging because of computational constraints. These constraints arise from exponentially increasing decision options due to dynamic interactions between the biophysical states of rangeland vegetation and farsighted decisions taken by pastoral stakeholders. This study applies a methodology that integrates these interactions in a computationally feasible manner. We equip a dynamic land use decision model with a detailed representation of biophysical processes by using a Markov chain meta-model of EPIC (Environmental Policy impact Calculator). Using separate Markov chains for different weather scenarios, we investigate the economic and ecological impacts of droughts on rangeland management in southern Morocco. The drought simulations (2 years with 33% less precipitation) show a decrease in profits from pastoralism by up to 57%. Pastoral land use of the rangeland in our model increases surface runoff by 20%, doubles infiltration, and thus influences irrigation agriculture. The economic and ecological impacts of drought in our simulation go substantially beyond its meteorological time horizon. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Bioeconomic land use modeling Dynamic programming Environmental Policy Impact Calculator (EPIC) Extensive grazing Irrigation agriculture Semi-arid pastoralism |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000289274900014 |
WOS关键词 | RESPONSES |
WOS类目 | Agriculture, Multidisciplinary ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/166939 |
作者单位 | 1.Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modeling, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany; 2.Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany; 3.Univ Hamburg, Bioctr Klein Flottbek, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany; 4.Univ Hamburg, Bot Garden, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Freier, Korbinian P.,Schneider, Uwe A.,Finckh, Manfred. Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change[J],2011,140(3-4):462-472. |
APA | Freier, Korbinian P.,Schneider, Uwe A.,&Finckh, Manfred.(2011).Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change.AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT,140(3-4),462-472. |
MLA | Freier, Korbinian P.,et al."Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change".AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT 140.3-4(2011):462-472. |
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