Arid
DOI10.1016/j.agee.2011.01.011
Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change
Freier, Korbinian P.1,2; Schneider, Uwe A.2; Finckh, Manfred3,4
通讯作者Freier, Korbinian P.
来源期刊AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0167-8809
EISSN1873-2305
出版年2011
卷号140期号:3-4页码:462-472
英文摘要

Integrated scientific assessments of semi-arid agroecosystems with mathematical models are challenging because of computational constraints. These constraints arise from exponentially increasing decision options due to dynamic interactions between the biophysical states of rangeland vegetation and farsighted decisions taken by pastoral stakeholders. This study applies a methodology that integrates these interactions in a computationally feasible manner. We equip a dynamic land use decision model with a detailed representation of biophysical processes by using a Markov chain meta-model of EPIC (Environmental Policy impact Calculator). Using separate Markov chains for different weather scenarios, we investigate the economic and ecological impacts of droughts on rangeland management in southern Morocco. The drought simulations (2 years with 33% less precipitation) show a decrease in profits from pastoralism by up to 57%. Pastoral land use of the rangeland in our model increases surface runoff by 20%, doubles infiltration, and thus influences irrigation agriculture. The economic and ecological impacts of drought in our simulation go substantially beyond its meteorological time horizon. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Bioeconomic land use modeling Dynamic programming Environmental Policy Impact Calculator (EPIC) Extensive grazing Irrigation agriculture Semi-arid pastoralism
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000289274900014
WOS关键词RESPONSES
WOS类目Agriculture, Multidisciplinary ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Agriculture ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/166939
作者单位1.Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modeling, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;
2.Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;
3.Univ Hamburg, Bioctr Klein Flottbek, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany;
4.Univ Hamburg, Bot Garden, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany
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Freier, Korbinian P.,Schneider, Uwe A.,Finckh, Manfred. Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change[J],2011,140(3-4):462-472.
APA Freier, Korbinian P.,Schneider, Uwe A.,&Finckh, Manfred.(2011).Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change.AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT,140(3-4),462-472.
MLA Freier, Korbinian P.,et al."Dynamic interactions between vegetation and land use in semi-arid Morocco: Using a Markov process for modeling rangelands under climate change".AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT 140.3-4(2011):462-472.
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