Arid
DOI10.1073/pnas.0911197107
A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America
Woodhouse, Connie A.1,2; Meko, David M.2; MacDonald, Glen M.3; Stahle, Dave W.4; Cooke, Edward R.5
通讯作者Woodhouse, Connie A.
来源期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN0027-8424
出版年2010
卷号107期号:50页码:21283-21288
英文摘要

A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, similar to AD 900-1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 degrees C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.


英文关键词climate change water resources paleoclimatology medieval period
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000285521500014
WOS关键词MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD ; SIERRA-NEVADA ; UNITED-STATES ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; COLORADO RIVER ; PRECIPITATION ; USA ; RECONSTRUCTIONS ; TEMPERATURE
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/166107
作者单位1.Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA;
2.Univ Arizona, Tree Ring Res Lab, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA;
3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA;
4.Univ Arkansas, Dept Geosci, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA;
5.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Geol Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Woodhouse, Connie A.,Meko, David M.,MacDonald, Glen M.,et al. A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America[J],2010,107(50):21283-21288.
APA Woodhouse, Connie A.,Meko, David M.,MacDonald, Glen M.,Stahle, Dave W.,&Cooke, Edward R..(2010).A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,107(50),21283-21288.
MLA Woodhouse, Connie A.,et al."A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 107.50(2010):21283-21288.
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