Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1080/02626660903526045 |
Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed | |
Souvignet, Maxime1,2; Gaese, Hartmut1; Ribbe, Lars1; Kretschmer, Nicole3; Oyarzun, Ricardo3,4 | |
通讯作者 | Souvignet, Maxime |
来源期刊 | HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES |
ISSN | 0262-6667 |
出版年 | 2010 |
卷号 | 55期号:1页码:41-57 |
英文摘要 | Downscaling of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is necessary to transfer predictions of potential climate change scenarios to local levels. This is of special interest in dry mountainous areas, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to risks of reduced freshwater availability. These areas play a key role in hydrology, since they usually receive the highest local precipitation amounts, which are then stored in the form of snow and glaciers. The performance and ability to simulate extreme events of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) were tested in the arid Upper-Elqui watershed, Chile. Thereafter, future temperature and precipitation seasonal trends along with agro-hydrological indices were analysed for the HadCM3 A2a and B2a scenarios. Maximum and minimum temperatures for both linear trends and extreme events were simulated accurately. However, the results show that SDSM was not a very robust method for the simulation of precipitation. Nevertheless, future trends and indices indicate possible strong inter-seasonal perturbations. |
英文关键词 | arid mountainous watershed climate change impacts study statistical downscaling temperature precipitation SDSM Elqui Valley Chile |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany ; Chile |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000278012900005 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTH-AMERICA ; BAYESIAN STATISTICS ; IPCC SIMULATIONS ; NEURAL-NETWORKS ; SEASONAL CYCLE ; UNITED-STATES ; MEAN STATE ; FUTURE ; TRENDS ; PROJECTION |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/164523 |
作者单位 | 1.Cologne Univ Appl Sci, Inst Technol & Resources Management Trop, D-50679 Cologne, Germany; 2.Univ Leipzig, Inst Geog, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany; 3.Univ La Serena, Ctr Adv Studies Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile; 4.Univ La Serena, Mines Engn Dept, La Serena, Chile |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Souvignet, Maxime,Gaese, Hartmut,Ribbe, Lars,et al. Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed[J],2010,55(1):41-57. |
APA | Souvignet, Maxime,Gaese, Hartmut,Ribbe, Lars,Kretschmer, Nicole,&Oyarzun, Ricardo.(2010).Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,55(1),41-57. |
MLA | Souvignet, Maxime,et al."Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES 55.1(2010):41-57. |
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