Arid
DOI10.1080/02626660903526045
Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed
Souvignet, Maxime1,2; Gaese, Hartmut1; Ribbe, Lars1; Kretschmer, Nicole3; Oyarzun, Ricardo3,4
通讯作者Souvignet, Maxime
来源期刊HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
ISSN0262-6667
出版年2010
卷号55期号:1页码:41-57
英文摘要

Downscaling of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is necessary to transfer predictions of potential climate change scenarios to local levels. This is of special interest in dry mountainous areas, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to risks of reduced freshwater availability. These areas play a key role in hydrology, since they usually receive the highest local precipitation amounts, which are then stored in the form of snow and glaciers. The performance and ability to simulate extreme events of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) were tested in the arid Upper-Elqui watershed, Chile. Thereafter, future temperature and precipitation seasonal trends along with agro-hydrological indices were analysed for the HadCM3 A2a and B2a scenarios. Maximum and minimum temperatures for both linear trends and extreme events were simulated accurately. However, the results show that SDSM was not a very robust method for the simulation of precipitation. Nevertheless, future trends and indices indicate possible strong inter-seasonal perturbations.


英文关键词arid mountainous watershed climate change impacts study statistical downscaling temperature precipitation SDSM Elqui Valley Chile
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany ; Chile
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000278012900005
WOS关键词SOUTH-AMERICA ; BAYESIAN STATISTICS ; IPCC SIMULATIONS ; NEURAL-NETWORKS ; SEASONAL CYCLE ; UNITED-STATES ; MEAN STATE ; FUTURE ; TRENDS ; PROJECTION
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/164523
作者单位1.Cologne Univ Appl Sci, Inst Technol & Resources Management Trop, D-50679 Cologne, Germany;
2.Univ Leipzig, Inst Geog, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany;
3.Univ La Serena, Ctr Adv Studies Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile;
4.Univ La Serena, Mines Engn Dept, La Serena, Chile
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Souvignet, Maxime,Gaese, Hartmut,Ribbe, Lars,et al. Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed[J],2010,55(1):41-57.
APA Souvignet, Maxime,Gaese, Hartmut,Ribbe, Lars,Kretschmer, Nicole,&Oyarzun, Ricardo.(2010).Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,55(1),41-57.
MLA Souvignet, Maxime,et al."Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: an assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES 55.1(2010):41-57.
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