Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00431.x |
Impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income along the Draa River in Morocco | |
Heidecke, Claudia; Heckelei, Thomas | |
通讯作者 | Heidecke, Claudia |
来源期刊 | AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0169-5150 |
出版年 | 2010 |
卷号 | 41期号:2页码:135-149 |
英文摘要 | Irrigation water is essential for agriculture in the arid Draa River basin in Morocco but climate change leads to increasingly unreliable water supply in the area. This article analyzes impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income extending a conjunctive river basin model toward a stochastic modeling approach. Regional climate scenarios are used to derive a maximum likelihood density estimate of current and future water supplies. Based on these distributions, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain stochastic model results on surface and groundwater irrigation as well as economic indicators for six oases along the river. The probability of farmers to receive revenues below the subsistence level is around 2% under current conditions, but this is likely to rise to rates of 6% to 15% depending on the underlying climate change scenario. The composition of water sources for irrigation will shift to more groundwater use. The river basin model is able to represent complex spatial interactions between oases as well as a partial complementarity between groundwater and surface water irrigation due to salinity management effects. Interestingly, the value of groundwater is not necessarily increasing under future climatic conditions as salinity problems are aggravated with expanded groundwater use. |
英文关键词 | C61 Q18 Q25 Q54 Conjunctive water management Stochastic simulation Agricultural income Stabilization value of groundwater Climate change |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000275092700004 |
WOS关键词 | GROUNDWATER ; MANAGEMENT ; SUPPLIES ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Agricultural Economics & Policy ; Economics |
WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Business & Economics |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/163033 |
作者单位 | Univ Bonn, Inst Food & Resource Econ, D-53115 Bonn, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Heidecke, Claudia,Heckelei, Thomas. Impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income along the Draa River in Morocco[J],2010,41(2):135-149. |
APA | Heidecke, Claudia,&Heckelei, Thomas.(2010).Impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income along the Draa River in Morocco.AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS,41(2),135-149. |
MLA | Heidecke, Claudia,et al."Impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income along the Draa River in Morocco".AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 41.2(2010):135-149. |
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