Arid
DOI10.1007/s11269-008-9369-y
Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed
Abdulla, Fayez2; Eshtawi, Tamer2; Assaf, Hamed1
通讯作者Assaf, Hamed
来源期刊WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN0920-4741
EISSN1573-1650
出版年2009
卷号23期号:10页码:2051-2068
英文摘要

With a yearly precipitation of 200 mm in most of the country, Jordan is considered one of the least water-endowed regions in the world. Water scarcity in Jordan is exacerbated by growing demands driven by population and industrial growth and rising living standards. Major urban and industrial centers in Jordan including the Capital Amman are concentrated in the northern highlands, mostly contained within the boundaries of the Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW). The ZRW is the third most productive basin in the greater Jordan River System. King Talal Dam was built a few kilometers upstream of the Zarqa-Jordan confluence to regulate its input mostly for the benefit of agricultural activities in the Jordan Valley. Concerns regarding the sensitivity of the ZRW to potential climate change have prompted the authors to carry out the current study. The methodology adopted is based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under alternative climate change scenarios. Utilizing the BASINS-HSPF modeling environment, scenarios represent ing climate conditions with +/- 20% change in rainfall, and 1A degrees C, 2A degrees C and 3.5A degrees C increases in average temperature were simulated and assessed. The HSPF model was calibrated for the ZRW using records spanning from 1980 through 1994. The model was validated against an independent data record extending from 1995 through 2002. Calibration and verification results were assessed based on linear regression fitting of monthly and daily flows. Monthly calibration and verifications produced good fit with regression coefficient r values equal to 0.928 and 0.923, respectively. Assessment based on daily records show much more modest r value of 0.785. The study shows that climate warming can dramatically impact runoffs and groundwater recharge in the ZRW. However the impact of warming can be greatly influenced by significant changes in rainfall volume.


英文关键词Climate change Water management Water scarcity Semi-arid Modeling Watershed Hydrology HSPF Jordan Zarqa
类型Article
语种英语
国家Lebanon ; Jordan
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000267688200011
WOS关键词HYDROLOGIC-MODELS ; HSPF ; RESOURCES
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/162793
作者单位1.Amer Univ Beirut, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Beirut 11072020, Lebanon;
2.Jordan Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irbid, Jordan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Abdulla, Fayez,Eshtawi, Tamer,Assaf, Hamed. Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed[J],2009,23(10):2051-2068.
APA Abdulla, Fayez,Eshtawi, Tamer,&Assaf, Hamed.(2009).Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,23(10),2051-2068.
MLA Abdulla, Fayez,et al."Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 23.10(2009):2051-2068.
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