Arid
DOI10.1002/met.145
Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran
Shiau, J. T.2; Modarres, R.1
通讯作者Modarres, R.
来源期刊METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN1350-4827
EISSN1469-8080
出版年2009
卷号16期号:4页码:481-489
英文摘要

Drought is a complex and multi-attribute natural hazard that has worldwide effects. Defined by a commonly used standardized precipitation index (SPI), each drought event is characterized by three correlated attributes: severity, duration and frequency. A probabilistic approach is developed to establish a drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) relationship. Copulas are employed to construct the joint distribution function of drought severity and duration. Drought frequency, in terms of recurrence interval of drought events, is then related to the copula-based distribution function via a conditional distribution function. The derived analytic drought SDF thus becomes a function of univariate distribution functions of drought severity and duration, a copula function which links the fitted univariate models, and the arrival rate of drought events. In this study, rainfall data for the period of 1954-2003 from two gauge stations in Iran, Abadan in the southwestern semi-arid region and Anzali in the north humid region, are employed as an example to illustrate the proposed approach. From the derived drought SDF, drought severity in Anzali station is greater than those in Abadan station for given drought duration and recurrence interval. The results imply that the drought severity in humid region might be more severe if high rainfall fluctuations exist in that region. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society


英文关键词drought bivariate distribution SPI copula Iran
类型Article
语种英语
国家Canada ; Taiwan
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000272822200004
WOS关键词RECURRENCE ANALYSIS ; SPATIAL-PATTERNS ; BIVARIATE ; EVENTS ; INDEX ; RIVER ; MODEL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/161930
作者单位1.Univ Quebec, INRS ETE, Quebec City, PQ G1K 9A9, Canada;
2.Natl Cheng Kung Univ, Dept Hydraul & Ocean Engn, Tainan 70101, Taiwan
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GB/T 7714
Shiau, J. T.,Modarres, R.. Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran[J],2009,16(4):481-489.
APA Shiau, J. T.,&Modarres, R..(2009).Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,16(4),481-489.
MLA Shiau, J. T.,et al."Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 16.4(2009):481-489.
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