Arid
’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models
Wolski, P.; Murray-Hudson, M.
通讯作者Wolski, P.
来源期刊WATER SA
ISSN0378-4738
出版年2008
卷号34期号:5页码:605-610
英文摘要

The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and both flood and drought conditions have in the past put pressure oil the system’s users. Human-induced climate change call potentially exacerbate the effects of existing climate variability. In this paper, we present simulated future hydro-ecological conditions in the Okavango Delta generated by a step-wise modelling procedure. The outputs of three different global climate models are used to drive a suite of hydrological models. Lastly, a rule-based dynamic model relates hydroperiod conditions to vegetation assemblages. The simulated future conditions vary from much drier to much wetter than those recorded in the past. Models indicate-that climatic change would result ill change in both extent and distribution of the major ecotopes of the Okavango Delta. Importantly, the different ecotopes will be affected to varying degrees. The projected changes will have consequences for the wildlife-based management of the system. They will affect, for example, available grazing and migration/movement patterns or large herbivores, as well as fish. Such consequences call have rapid up-trophic level effects, ultimately leading to potentially substantial impacts oil the economy. The main Conclusion to be drawn is that management planning and land-use systems should be as flexible its possible.


英文关键词climate change development planning GCM hydro-ecological modelling wetland management
类型Article
语种英语
国家Botswana
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000261309000010
WOS关键词BOTSWANA ; SYSTEM ; IMPACT ; SCENARIOS ; DYNAMICS ; SWAMPS ; RIVER
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/159382
作者单位Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Res Ctr, Maun, Botswana
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GB/T 7714
Wolski, P.,Murray-Hudson, M.. ’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models[J],2008,34(5):605-610.
APA Wolski, P.,&Murray-Hudson, M..(2008).’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models.WATER SA,34(5),605-610.
MLA Wolski, P.,et al."’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models".WATER SA 34.5(2008):605-610.
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