Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models | |
Wolski, P.; Murray-Hudson, M. | |
通讯作者 | Wolski, P. |
来源期刊 | WATER SA
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ISSN | 0378-4738 |
出版年 | 2008 |
卷号 | 34期号:5页码:605-610 |
英文摘要 | The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and both flood and drought conditions have in the past put pressure oil the system’s users. Human-induced climate change call potentially exacerbate the effects of existing climate variability. In this paper, we present simulated future hydro-ecological conditions in the Okavango Delta generated by a step-wise modelling procedure. The outputs of three different global climate models are used to drive a suite of hydrological models. Lastly, a rule-based dynamic model relates hydroperiod conditions to vegetation assemblages. The simulated future conditions vary from much drier to much wetter than those recorded in the past. Models indicate-that climatic change would result ill change in both extent and distribution of the major ecotopes of the Okavango Delta. Importantly, the different ecotopes will be affected to varying degrees. The projected changes will have consequences for the wildlife-based management of the system. They will affect, for example, available grazing and migration/movement patterns or large herbivores, as well as fish. Such consequences call have rapid up-trophic level effects, ultimately leading to potentially substantial impacts oil the economy. The main Conclusion to be drawn is that management planning and land-use systems should be as flexible its possible. |
英文关键词 | climate change development planning GCM hydro-ecological modelling wetland management |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Botswana |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000261309000010 |
WOS关键词 | BOTSWANA ; SYSTEM ; IMPACT ; SCENARIOS ; DYNAMICS ; SWAMPS ; RIVER |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/159382 |
作者单位 | Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Res Ctr, Maun, Botswana |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wolski, P.,Murray-Hudson, M.. ’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models[J],2008,34(5):605-610. |
APA | Wolski, P.,&Murray-Hudson, M..(2008).’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models.WATER SA,34(5),605-610. |
MLA | Wolski, P.,et al."’Alternative futures’ of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models".WATER SA 34.5(2008):605-610. |
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