Arid
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.02.002
Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model
Gao, Xuejie1,2; Giorgi, Filippo2
通讯作者Gao, Xuejie
来源期刊GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN0921-8181
EISSN1872-6364
出版年2008
卷号62期号:3-4页码:195-209
英文摘要

We use three measures of aridity, the Koppen climate classification, the UNEP aridity index and the Budyko dryness index, to estimate the possible effects of late 21st century climate change on the Mediterranean region under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios) as simulated with a high resolution (20 km grid interval) regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM). A basic validation of the reference simulation along with a brief discussion of the surface climate changes for the A2 and B2 scenarios is also provided. Analysis of the changes in all three aridity measures indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region might experience a substantial increase in the northward extension of dry and and lands, particularly in the central and southern portions of the Iberian, Italian, Hellenic and Turkish peninsulas and in areas of southeastern Europe (e.g. Romania and Bulgaria), the Middle East, northern Africa and major Islands (Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily). Most Ice-Cap areas of the Alps are also projected to disappear. These effects are due to a large warming and Pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially during the spring and summer seasons. In addition, fine scale topography and coastline features affect the aridity change signal. We identify the southern Mediterranean as a region particularly vulnerable to water stress and desertification processes under climate change conditions. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词climate change Mediterranean climate regional climate modeling aridity
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; Italy
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000257019900002
WOS关键词INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; EUROPE ; CLASSIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; DROUGHT ; TRENDS ; REGCM2
WOS类目Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Physical Geography ; Geology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/157518
作者单位1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Study, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Abdus Salum Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gao, Xuejie,Giorgi, Filippo. Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model[J],2008,62(3-4):195-209.
APA Gao, Xuejie,&Giorgi, Filippo.(2008).Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,62(3-4),195-209.
MLA Gao, Xuejie,et al."Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 62.3-4(2008):195-209.
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