Arid
DOI10.1002/qj.78
Iberian thermal lows in a changed climate
Hoinka, Klaus P.; Gaertner, Miguel; de Castro, Manuel
通讯作者Hoinka, Klaus P.
来源期刊QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
ISSN0035-9009
EISSN1477-870X
出版年2007
卷号133期号:626页码:1113-1126
英文摘要

Recent results from enhanced greenhouse-gas scenarios over southern Europe suggest that climate change implies a summertime mean surface warming of up to 4 K over the Iberian Peninsula. It is suggested that thermal lows, the most prominent Iberian summer weather, will undergo significant modifications in a changed climate. This is studied in the present paper by determining statistical features of the Iberian thermal low, at first for today’s climate using data provided by ERA-40 and by the regional climate model PROXIES. In general the analysed and simulated climatic structures compare well. However, the ERA-40 data provide conditions more favourable for thermal lows than simulated with the model. Statistics in a changed climate are obtained by performing two 30-year model simulations for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. It is found that thermal lows strengthen by decreasing the central Iberian surface pressure from 1012.2 to 1010.5 hPa and increasing its daily variation by about 7% in magnitude. Associated with this is an increase in the number of thermal low days by more than 60%. A second finding is an enhancement of the sea breezes over the Iberian westerly and easterly coasts and a particularly significant strengthening of the sea breeze between Cadiz and Huelva. The westerly flow over the Strait of Gibraltar, observed during thermal low events, decreases. The increase in occurrence of the thermal low is associated with a significant increase in the number of dry spells of longer period, and could involve considerable impact on desertification, water resources and wildfire hazards around the Mediterranean basin. The results suggest that there is some evidence that the subtropical character of the Mediterranean climate strengthens. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.


英文关键词climate change Iberian peninsula ERA-40 data thermal low
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany ; Spain
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000249079100004
WOS关键词MODEL ; SENSITIVITY ; REANALYSIS ; TIDES
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/155766
作者单位(1)DLR, Inst Phys Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany;(2)Univ Castilla La Mancha, Dept Ciencias Ambientales, Toledo, Spain
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hoinka, Klaus P.,Gaertner, Miguel,de Castro, Manuel. Iberian thermal lows in a changed climate[J],2007,133(626):1113-1126.
APA Hoinka, Klaus P.,Gaertner, Miguel,&de Castro, Manuel.(2007).Iberian thermal lows in a changed climate.QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,133(626),1113-1126.
MLA Hoinka, Klaus P.,et al."Iberian thermal lows in a changed climate".QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 133.626(2007):1113-1126.
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