Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.4269/ajtmh.2007.77.61 |
Malaria stratification, climate, and epidemic early warning in Eritrea | |
Ceccato, Pietro1; Ghebremeskel, Tewolde; Jaiteh, Malanding; Graves, Patricia M.; Levy, Marc; Ghebreselassie, Shashu; Ogbamariam, Andom; Barnston, Anthony G.; Bell, Michael; del Corral, John; Connor, Stephen J.; Fesseha, Issac; Brantly, Eugene P.; Thomson, Madeleine C. | |
通讯作者 | Ceccato, Pietro |
来源期刊 | AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE
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ISSN | 0002-9637 |
出版年 | 2007 |
卷号 | 77期号:6页码:61-68 |
英文摘要 | Eritrea has a successful malaria control program, but it is still susceptible to devastating malaria epidemics. Monthly data on clinical malaria cases from 242 health facilities in 58 subzobas (districts) of Eritrea from 1996 to 2003 were used in a novel stratification process using; principal component analysis and nonhierarchical clustering to define five areas with distinct malaria intensity and seasonality patterns, to guide future interventions and development of an epidemic early warning system. Relationships between monthly clinical malaria incidence by subzoba and monthly climate data from several sources, and with seasonal climate forecasts, were investigated. Remotely sensed climate data were averaged over the same subzoba geographic administrative units as the malaria cases. Although correlation was good between malaria anomalies and actual rainfall from ground stations (lagged by 2 months), the stations did not have sufficiently even coverage to be widely useful. Satellite derived rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation was correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, with a lead time of 2-3 months. NDVI anomalies were highly correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, particularly in the semi-arid north of the country and along the northern Red Sea coast, which is a highly epidemic-prone area. Eritrea has 2 distinct rainy seasons in different parts of the country. The seasonal forecasting skill from Global Circulation Models for the June/July/August season was low except for the Eastern border. For the coastal October/November/December season, forecasting skill was good only during the 1997-1998 El Nino event. For epidemic control, shorter-range warning based on remotely sensed rainfall estimates and an enhanced epidemic early-detection system based on data derived for this study are needed. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA ; Eritrea |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000252212600013 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN AFRICA ; INFORMATION-SYSTEM ; EL-NINO ; RAINFALL ; VARIABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; BOTSWANA ; HEALTH ; INDEX ; NDVI |
WOS类目 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Tropical Medicine |
WOS研究方向 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Tropical Medicine |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/153406 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Earth Inst, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 2.Minist Hlth, Natl Malaria Control Program, Asmera, Eritrea; 3.Columbia Univ, CIESIN, New York, NY USA; 4.EpiVec Consulting, Atlanta, GA USA; 5.Minist Hlth, Dept Res & Human Resource Dev, Asmera, Eritrea; 6.Meteorol Serv, Asmera, Eritrea; 7.RTI Int, Washington, DC USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ceccato, Pietro,Ghebremeskel, Tewolde,Jaiteh, Malanding,et al. Malaria stratification, climate, and epidemic early warning in Eritrea[J],2007,77(6):61-68. |
APA | Ceccato, Pietro.,Ghebremeskel, Tewolde.,Jaiteh, Malanding.,Graves, Patricia M..,Levy, Marc.,...&Thomson, Madeleine C..(2007).Malaria stratification, climate, and epidemic early warning in Eritrea.AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE,77(6),61-68. |
MLA | Ceccato, Pietro,et al."Malaria stratification, climate, and epidemic early warning in Eritrea".AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE 77.6(2007):61-68. |
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