Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications | |
Schneider, J. M.; Garbrecht, J. D. | |
通讯作者 | Schneider, J. M. |
来源期刊 | TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE
![]() |
ISSN | 2151-0032 |
EISSN | 2151-0040 |
出版年 | 2006 |
卷号 | 49期号:6页码:1737-1753 |
英文摘要 | NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues seasonal climate forecasts predicting total precipitation and average air temperature for three-month periods out to a year in advance. The utility of these seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications will depend on forecast characteristics, including dependability and effectiveness. Dependability is defined as the ability of the forecasts to correctly predict future climate probabilities. Effectiveness refers to the ability of the forecasts to provide information beyond that achieved by standard climatological considerations. Measures of dependability and effectiveness are developed for the NOAA probability of exceedance forecasts, and evaluated for the forecasts issued for 1997 through early 2005 for the contiguous U.S. Both measures require that forecasts satisfy, a usefulness threshold of an 8% departure from climatological odds prior to inclusion in the evaluation. Results depend on forecast variable, direction of forecast (wetter/drier, warmer/cooler), season, and forecast lead time. Forecasts for warmer than average conditions are frequent and dependable for most of the U.S.; forecasts for cooler than average conditions are infrequent and rarely dependable. Forecasts for wetter than average conditions are less frequent and less dependable than temperature forecasts; with the exception of Arizona and Florida, forecasts for drier than average conditions are not as frequent or dependable as the wetter forecasts. Overall, in the Desert Southwest, southern and eastern Texas, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and parts of the Pacific Northwest, temperature forecasts have relatively high effectiveness, primarily in November through July, at all lead times. In the same regions, precipitation forecasts have moderate effectiveness in October through February, for lead times up to 6.5 months. For the rest of the U.S., only temperature forecasts show some effectiveness at longer lead times. |
英文关键词 | agricultural management average air temperature climate climatology decision support forecast precipitation seasonal |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000243990400008 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE PREDICTION |
WOS类目 | Agricultural Engineering |
WOS研究方向 | Agriculture |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/153135 |
作者单位 | (1)USDA ARS, Grazinglands Res Lab, El Reno, OK USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schneider, J. M.,Garbrecht, J. D.. Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications[J],2006,49(6):1737-1753. |
APA | Schneider, J. M.,&Garbrecht, J. D..(2006).Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications.TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE,49(6),1737-1753. |
MLA | Schneider, J. M.,et al."Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications".TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE 49.6(2006):1737-1753. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。