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Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications
Schneider, J. M.; Garbrecht, J. D.
通讯作者Schneider, J. M.
来源期刊TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE
ISSN2151-0032
EISSN2151-0040
出版年2006
卷号49期号:6页码:1737-1753
英文摘要

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues seasonal climate forecasts predicting total precipitation and average air temperature for three-month periods out to a year in advance. The utility of these seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications will depend on forecast characteristics, including dependability and effectiveness. Dependability is defined as the ability of the forecasts to correctly predict future climate probabilities. Effectiveness refers to the ability of the forecasts to provide information beyond that achieved by standard climatological considerations. Measures of dependability and effectiveness are developed for the NOAA probability of exceedance forecasts, and evaluated for the forecasts issued for 1997 through early 2005 for the contiguous U.S. Both measures require that forecasts satisfy, a usefulness threshold of an 8% departure from climatological odds prior to inclusion in the evaluation. Results depend on forecast variable, direction of forecast (wetter/drier, warmer/cooler), season, and forecast lead time. Forecasts for warmer than average conditions are frequent and dependable for most of the U.S.; forecasts for cooler than average conditions are infrequent and rarely dependable. Forecasts for wetter than average conditions are less frequent and less dependable than temperature forecasts; with the exception of Arizona and Florida, forecasts for drier than average conditions are not as frequent or dependable as the wetter forecasts. Overall, in the Desert Southwest, southern and eastern Texas, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and parts of the Pacific Northwest, temperature forecasts have relatively high effectiveness, primarily in November through July, at all lead times. In the same regions, precipitation forecasts have moderate effectiveness in October through February, for lead times up to 6.5 months. For the rest of the U.S., only temperature forecasts show some effectiveness at longer lead times.


英文关键词agricultural management average air temperature climate climatology decision support forecast precipitation seasonal
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000243990400008
WOS关键词CLIMATE PREDICTION
WOS类目Agricultural Engineering
WOS研究方向Agriculture
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/153135
作者单位(1)USDA ARS, Grazinglands Res Lab, El Reno, OK USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Schneider, J. M.,Garbrecht, J. D.. Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications[J],2006,49(6):1737-1753.
APA Schneider, J. M.,&Garbrecht, J. D..(2006).Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications.TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE,49(6),1737-1753.
MLA Schneider, J. M.,et al."Dependability and effectiveness of seasonal forecasts for agricultural applications".TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE 49.6(2006):1737-1753.
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