Arid
DOI10.1086/507711
Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States
Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Crookston, Nicholas L.; Warwell, Marcus V.; Evans, Jeffrey S.
通讯作者Rehfeldt, Gerald E.
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT SCIENCES
ISSN1058-5893
出版年2006
卷号167期号:6页码:1123-1150
英文摘要

The Random Forests multiple-regression tree was used to model climate profiles of 25 biotic communities of the western United States and nine of their constituent species. Analyses of the communities were based on a gridded sample of ca. 140,000 points, while those for the species used presence-absence data from ca. 120,000 locations. Independent variables included 35 simple expressions of temperature and precipitation and their interactions. Classification errors for community models averaged 19%, but the errors were reduced by half when adjusted for misalignment between geographic data sets. Errors of omission for species-specific models approached 0, while errors of commission were less than 9%. Mapped climate profiles of the species were in solid agreement with range maps. Climate variables of most importance for segregating the communities were those that generally differentiate maritime, continental, and monsoonal climates, while those of importance for predicting the occurrence of species varied among species but consistently implicated the periodicity of precipitation and temperature-precipitation interactions. Projections showed that unmitigated global warming should increase the abundance primarily of the montane forest and grassland community profiles at the expense largely of those of the subalpine, alpine, and tundra communities but also that of the arid woodlands. However, the climate of 47% of the future landscape may be extramural to contemporary community profiles. Effects projected on the spatial distribution of species-specific profiles were varied, but shifts in space and attitude would be extensive. Species-specific projections were not necessarily consistent with those of their communities.


英文关键词bioclimatic models Random Forests multiple-regression tree climatic distributions climatic niche response to climate change global warming
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000242908300005
WOS关键词VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; GLOBAL CHANGE ; ADAPTIVE EVOLUTION ; CONTINENTAL-SCALE ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; PINUS-SYLVESTRIS ; MIGRATION RATES ; POLLEN SPECTRA ; WATER-BALANCE
WOS类目Plant Sciences
WOS研究方向Plant Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/151744
作者单位(1)USDA, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Forest Serv, Forestry Sci Lab, Moscow, ID 83843 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Rehfeldt, Gerald E.,Crookston, Nicholas L.,Warwell, Marcus V.,et al. Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States[J],2006,167(6):1123-1150.
APA Rehfeldt, Gerald E.,Crookston, Nicholas L.,Warwell, Marcus V.,&Evans, Jeffrey S..(2006).Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT SCIENCES,167(6),1123-1150.
MLA Rehfeldt, Gerald E.,et al."Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT SCIENCES 167.6(2006):1123-1150.
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