Arid
DOI10.1098/rstb.2005.1741
From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact
Baron, C; Sultan, B; Balme, M; Sarr, B; Traore, S; Lebel, T; Janicot, S; Dingkuhn, M
通讯作者Baron, C
来源期刊PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
ISSN0962-8436
EISSN1471-2970
出版年2005
卷号360期号:1463页码:2095-2108
英文摘要

General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10 degrees N-17 degrees N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel-Guillot-Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10-50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level.


英文关键词millet drought West Africa grain yield biomass aggregation
类型Article
语种英语
国家France ; Niger
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000233427400010
WOS关键词WEST-AFRICA ; HYDROLOGICAL SCALES ; RAIN FIELDS ; LEAF-AREA ; PREDICTION ; SYSTEM ; SAHEL ; DISAGGREGATION ; VARIABILITY ; DYNAMICS
WOS类目Biology
WOS研究方向Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
来源机构French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development ; E17
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/150142
作者单位(1)CIRAD, Amis Agron Ecotrop, F-34398 Montpellier, France;(2)Univ Paris 06, CNRS, UMR 7159, LOCEAN,IRD,UPMC,MNHN, F-75252 Paris, France;(3)CNRS, IRD, INPG, UJF,LTHE,UMR, F-75252 Paris, France;(4)Ctr AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger
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GB/T 7714
Baron, C,Sultan, B,Balme, M,et al. From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact[J]. French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, E17,2005,360(1463):2095-2108.
APA Baron, C.,Sultan, B.,Balme, M.,Sarr, B.,Traore, S.,...&Dingkuhn, M.(2005).From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact.PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,360(1463),2095-2108.
MLA Baron, C,et al."From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact".PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 360.1463(2005):2095-2108.
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