Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s11069-004-4349-x |
A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments | |
Usman, MT; Archer, E; Johnston, P; Tadross, M | |
通讯作者 | Usman, MT |
来源期刊 | NATURAL HAZARDS
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ISSN | 0921-030X |
EISSN | 1573-0840 |
出版年 | 2005 |
卷号 | 34期号:1页码:111-129 |
英文摘要 | Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969-1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists. Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa - a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine. |
英文关键词 | drought definition drought indicators seasonal rainfall forecasts climate forecast utility agricultural applications conceptual framework emerging research agenda |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000226506100006 |
WOS关键词 | DROUGHT INDEXES ; ONSET ; END ; QUANTIFICATION ; PREDICTION ; SEVERITY ; WEATHER ; SEASON ; POLICY |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/150004 |
作者单位 | (1)Univ Cape Town, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Usman, MT,Archer, E,Johnston, P,et al. A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments[J],2005,34(1):111-129. |
APA | Usman, MT,Archer, E,Johnston, P,&Tadross, M.(2005).A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments.NATURAL HAZARDS,34(1),111-129. |
MLA | Usman, MT,et al."A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments".NATURAL HAZARDS 34.1(2005):111-129. |
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