Arid
DOI10.1007/s11069-004-4349-x
A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments
Usman, MT; Archer, E; Johnston, P; Tadross, M
通讯作者Usman, MT
来源期刊NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN0921-030X
EISSN1573-0840
出版年2005
卷号34期号:1页码:111-129
英文摘要

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969-1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.


Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa - a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.


英文关键词drought definition drought indicators seasonal rainfall forecasts climate forecast utility agricultural applications conceptual framework emerging research agenda
类型Article
语种英语
国家South Africa
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000226506100006
WOS关键词DROUGHT INDEXES ; ONSET ; END ; QUANTIFICATION ; PREDICTION ; SEVERITY ; WEATHER ; SEASON ; POLICY
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/150004
作者单位(1)Univ Cape Town, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Usman, MT,Archer, E,Johnston, P,et al. A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments[J],2005,34(1):111-129.
APA Usman, MT,Archer, E,Johnston, P,&Tadross, M.(2005).A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments.NATURAL HAZARDS,34(1),111-129.
MLA Usman, MT,et al."A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments".NATURAL HAZARDS 34.1(2005):111-129.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Usman, MT]的文章
[Archer, E]的文章
[Johnston, P]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Usman, MT]的文章
[Archer, E]的文章
[Johnston, P]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Usman, MT]的文章
[Archer, E]的文章
[Johnston, P]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。