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Two long-term mechanistic models of grazing systems in the semi-arid succulent Karoo have been used to study factors that influence vegetation changes, livestock productivity and sustainability of the ecosystem. In this region of low and highly variable rainfall, goats and sheep feed on vegetation comprising perennial shrubs and annuals. A previously published model of the Namaqualand system (the "standard" model) explicitly simulates three guilds of perennial shrubs, a guild of annuals, forage consumption, growth of goats and goat reproductive and survival rates. The model also simulates variable rainfall and predicts that, if no steps are taken to control the goat population, stock numbers will vary widely between years and the population of the different plant guilds will fluctuate. Plots of model output indicate that the system is driven by rainfall. Temporal changes in the relative abundance of each guild vary with different sequences of rainfall having similar long-term mean and variability. A single run of the model may display equilibrial, disequilibrial and threshold behaviour. Thus, the system exhibits complex dynamics. If animal numbers are held constant at the long-term average of variable stock or at the recommended stocking rate then the cover of palatable shrubs decreases and that of toxic plants increases substantially. A "simplified" model based on an aggregated forage variable and equilibrium dynamics is inadequate to describe the behaviour of this system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.