Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
Using clustered climate regimes to analyze and compare predictions from fully coupled general circulation models | |
Hoffman, Forrest M.; Hargrove, William W., Jr.; Erickson, David J., III; Oglesby, Robert J. | |
通讯作者 | Hoffman, Forrest M. |
来源期刊 | EARTH INTERACTIONS
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ISSN | 1087-3562 |
出版年 | 2005 |
卷号 | 9 |
英文摘要 | Changes in Earth’s climate in response to atmospheric green-house gas buildup impact the heath of terrestrial ecosystems and the hydrologic cycle. The environmental conditions influential to plant and animal life are often mapped as ecoregions, which are land areas having similar combinations of environmental characteristics. This idea is extended to establish regions of similarity with respect to climatic characteristics that evolve through time using a quantitative statistical clustering technique called Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC). MSTC was applied to the monthly time series output from a fully coupled general circulation model (GCM) called the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Results from an ensemble of five 99-yr-Business-As-Usual (BAU) transient simulations from 2000 to 2098 were analyzed. MSTC establishes an exhaustive set of recurring climate regimes that form a "skeleton" through the "observations" ( model output) throughout the occupied portion of the climate phase space formed by the characteristics being considered. MSTC facilitates direct comparison of ensemble members and ensemble and temporal averages since the derived climate regimes provide a basis for comparison. Moreover, by mapping all land cells to discrete climate states, the dynamic behavior of any part of the system can be studied by its time-varying sequence of climate state occupancy. MSTC is a powerful tool for model developers and environmental decision makers who wish to understand long, complex time series predictions of models. Strong predicted interannual trends were revealed in this analysis, including an increase in global desertification; a decrease in the cold, dry high-latitude conditions typical of North American and Asian winters; and significant warming in Antarctica and western Greenland. |
英文关键词 | climate clustering Parallel Climate Model PCM Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000241213400001 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE DYNAMICS ; SIMULATIONS ; CCM3 ; DELINEATION ; ECOREGIONS ; REGIONS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/148811 |
作者单位 | (1)Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate & Carbon Res Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA;(2)NASA, George C Marshall Space Flight Ctr, Huntsville, AL 35812 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hoffman, Forrest M.,Hargrove, William W., Jr.,Erickson, David J., III,et al. Using clustered climate regimes to analyze and compare predictions from fully coupled general circulation models[J],2005,9. |
APA | Hoffman, Forrest M.,Hargrove, William W., Jr.,Erickson, David J., III,&Oglesby, Robert J..(2005).Using clustered climate regimes to analyze and compare predictions from fully coupled general circulation models.EARTH INTERACTIONS,9. |
MLA | Hoffman, Forrest M.,et al."Using clustered climate regimes to analyze and compare predictions from fully coupled general circulation models".EARTH INTERACTIONS 9(2005). |
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