Arid
DOI10.4067/S0716-078X2004000300004
Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America
Lauenroth, WK; Epstein, HE; Paruelo, JM; Burke, IC; Aguiar, MR; Sala, OE
通讯作者Lauenroth, WK
来源期刊REVISTA CHILENA DE HISTORIA NATURAL
ISSN0716-078X
EISSN0717-6317
出版年2004
卷号77期号:3页码:439-453
英文摘要

Under current conditions, large areas of temperate western North America and temperate southern South America have arid to subhumid climates that make them vulnerable to changes as a result of human-induced climate change. Predictions of climate change from global circulation models with a doubling of present atmospheric levels of CO2 suggest large changes in mean annual temperature and small to no changes in mean annual precipitation and the proportion of precipitation received during the summer. Our objective here was to evaluate how predictions of climate change from global circulation models will influence climatic patterns and by inference the distribution of temperate zone ecosystems in North and South America. Calculations of annual water deficits suggest that the area affected by very dry conditions will double as a result of climate change. This expansion will take place in the vicinity of the currently dry areas. Monthly water deficit calculations suggest that approximately half of the temperate zone on each continent is affected by at least one month of deficit. Under a doubled CO2 climate, these areas would expand to cover up to 77 % of the temperate zone of North America and up to 80 % of South America. The resulting changes to the current distribution of ecosystems will likely be an expansion of deserts At the expense of grasslands in North and South America and an expansion of grasslands at the expense of deciduous and boreal forest in North America. Our analyses assumed that future climatic changes will be encompassed by the predictions of our three doubled CO2 scenarios. The most likely situation is that actual changes, if they occur, will be different from our scenarios. Therefore. our analyses should be interpreted as indications of the sensitivity of portions of the North and South American temperate zones to increases in temperature. The key conclusion from our analyses is that any increase in temperature caused by climate change will result in expansion of the driest portions of both continents.


英文关键词climate change temperate ecosystems global circulation model CO2
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; Argentina
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000224114200004
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构Colorado State University
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/147989
作者单位(1)Colorado State Univ, Dept Forest Rangeland & Watershed Stewardship, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;(2)Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA;(3)Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Agron, Dept Ecol, RA-1417 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina;(4)Univ Buenos Aires, IFEVA, RA-1417 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lauenroth, WK,Epstein, HE,Paruelo, JM,et al. Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America[J]. Colorado State University,2004,77(3):439-453.
APA Lauenroth, WK,Epstein, HE,Paruelo, JM,Burke, IC,Aguiar, MR,&Sala, OE.(2004).Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America.REVISTA CHILENA DE HISTORIA NATURAL,77(3),439-453.
MLA Lauenroth, WK,et al."Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America".REVISTA CHILENA DE HISTORIA NATURAL 77.3(2004):439-453.
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