Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1002/joc.1056 |
Atmospheric predictors for major floods in the NEGEV desert, Israel | |
Kahana, R; Ziv, B; Dayan, U; Enzel, Y | |
通讯作者 | Kahana, R |
来源期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
出版年 | 2004 |
卷号 | 24期号:9页码:1137-1147 |
英文摘要 | The study examines the ability of a set of atmospheric variables to predict major floods in the Negev Desert in the southern part of Israel. The two dominant synoptic types, which contributed over 70% of the major floods during 1965-94 in that region, were examined. These are: the active Red Sea trough (ARST), a surface trough along the Red Sea, combined with a pronounced upper trough; and the Syrian low (SL), an intense Mediterranean cyclone centred over Syria. For each synoptic type, a set of atmospheric variables (predictors) was chosen to reflect its unique atmospheric features, and a prediction score was calculated as the ratio between the number of flood-producing storms and the total number of events in which all the variables exceeded their threshold values. The prediction score for the ARST type is 86%. Moreover, the predictors identify the major flood dates without any ’false’ date (100%) for 4 of the 5 months in which major floods of this type had occurred. Most of the predictors are found at the 500 hPa level, and the most powerful is the v/u ratio, which represents the southerly wind component and is responsible for the transport of moist tropical air masses (essential for convection) toward the Middle East. The prediction score for the SL type is 73%. The intensity and structure of the surface cyclone are found to be most powerful predictors, although the importance of geopotential height at 500 hPa indicates that these types of flood depend on the combined effect of several factors. Transforming these remarkably high scores into a high-skill operational forecast of major floods in the Negev requires reliable forecast models to supply the desired variables with reasonable accuracy. It seems that the current operational models, together with our derived predictors, have the potential to yield a successful forecast of major floods 2 days in advance. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. |
英文关键词 | extreme floods forecasting hydroclimatology Red Sea trough Mediterranean cyclone Negev Desert |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England ; Israel |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000222886800006 |
WOS关键词 | MIDDLE-EAST ; RAINFALL ; RADAR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源机构 | Hebrew University of Jerusalem |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/147009 |
作者单位 | (1)Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England;(2)Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Inst Earth Sci, IL-91904 Jerusalem, Israel;(3)Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Geog, IL-91904 Jerusalem, Israel;(4)Open Univ, Ramat Aviv, Israel;(5)Ramon Sci Ctr, Mizpe Ramon, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kahana, R,Ziv, B,Dayan, U,et al. Atmospheric predictors for major floods in the NEGEV desert, Israel[J]. Hebrew University of Jerusalem,2004,24(9):1137-1147. |
APA | Kahana, R,Ziv, B,Dayan, U,&Enzel, Y.(2004).Atmospheric predictors for major floods in the NEGEV desert, Israel.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,24(9),1137-1147. |
MLA | Kahana, R,et al."Atmospheric predictors for major floods in the NEGEV desert, Israel".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 24.9(2004):1137-1147. |
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