Arid
DOI10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024674.37725.ca
Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment
Manabe, S; Wetherald, RT; Milly, PCD; Delworth, TL; Stouffer, RJ
通讯作者Manabe, S
来源期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
出版年2004
卷号64期号:1-2页码:59-76
英文摘要

It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already ’water-rich’. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of similar to15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob’ increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller.


类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000220927500005
WOS关键词ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE ; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL ; SUMMER DRYNESS ; CLIMATE ; OCEAN ; CO2
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构United States Geological Survey
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/146496
作者单位(1)Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;(2)Princeton Univ, NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA;(3)US Geol Survey, GFDL, NOAA, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA
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GB/T 7714
Manabe, S,Wetherald, RT,Milly, PCD,et al. Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment[J]. United States Geological Survey,2004,64(1-2):59-76.
APA Manabe, S,Wetherald, RT,Milly, PCD,Delworth, TL,&Stouffer, RJ.(2004).Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment.CLIMATIC CHANGE,64(1-2),59-76.
MLA Manabe, S,et al."Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment".CLIMATIC CHANGE 64.1-2(2004):59-76.
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