Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1029/2001GB001508 |
Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States | |
Bachelet, D; Neilson, RP; Hickler, T; Drapek, RJ; Lenihan, JM; Sykes, MT; Smith, B; Sitch, S; Thonicke, K | |
通讯作者 | Bachelet, D |
来源期刊 | GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
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ISSN | 0886-6236 |
出版年 | 2003 |
卷号 | 17期号:2 |
英文摘要 | Simulations of potential vegetation distribution, natural fire frequency, carbon pools, and fluxes are presented for two DGVMs (Dynamic Global Vegetation Models) from the second phase of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project. Results link vegetation dynamics to biogeochemical cycling for the conterminous United States. Two climate change scenarios were used: a moderately warm scenario from the Hadley Climate Centre and a warmer scenario from the Canadian Climate Center. Both include sulfate aerosols and assume a gradual CO2 increase. Both DGVMs simulate a reduction of southwestern desert areas, a westward expansion of eastern deciduous forests, and the expansion of forests in the western part of the Pacific Northwest and in north-central California. Both DGVMs predict an increase in total biomass burnt in the next century, with a more pronounced increase under the Canadian scenario. Under the Hadley scenario, both DGVMs simulate increases in total carbon stocks. Under the Canadian scenario, both DGVMs simulate a decrease in live vegetation carbon. We identify similarities in model behavior due to the climate forcing and explain differences by the different structure of the models and their different sensitivity to CO2. We compare model output with data to enhance our confidence in their ability to simulate potential vegetation distribution and ecosystem processes. We compare changes in the area of drought-induced decreases in vegetation density with a spatial index derived from the Palmer Drought Severity Index to illustrate the ability of the vegetation to cope with water limitations in the future and the role of the CO2 fertilization effect. |
英文关键词 | MC1 LPJ climate change fire carbon PDSI |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA ; Sweden ; Germany |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000183102900001 |
WOS关键词 | TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE MODEL ; NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; CO2 ENRICHMENT ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; BOUNDARY-LAYER ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; WATER-BALANCE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/144733 |
作者单位 | (1)Oregon State Univ, Forestry Sci Lab, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA;(2)US Forest Serv, Forestry Sci Lab, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA;(3)Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Climate Impacts Grp, S-22362 Lund, Sweden;(4)Potsdam Inst Cimate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bachelet, D,Neilson, RP,Hickler, T,et al. Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States[J],2003,17(2). |
APA | Bachelet, D.,Neilson, RP.,Hickler, T.,Drapek, RJ.,Lenihan, JM.,...&Thonicke, K.(2003).Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States.GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES,17(2). |
MLA | Bachelet, D,et al."Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States".GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 17.2(2003). |
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