Arid
DOI10.1029/2001GB001508
Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States
Bachelet, D; Neilson, RP; Hickler, T; Drapek, RJ; Lenihan, JM; Sykes, MT; Smith, B; Sitch, S; Thonicke, K
通讯作者Bachelet, D
来源期刊GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
ISSN0886-6236
出版年2003
卷号17期号:2
英文摘要

Simulations of potential vegetation distribution, natural fire frequency, carbon pools, and fluxes are presented for two DGVMs (Dynamic Global Vegetation Models) from the second phase of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project. Results link vegetation dynamics to biogeochemical cycling for the conterminous United States. Two climate change scenarios were used: a moderately warm scenario from the Hadley Climate Centre and a warmer scenario from the Canadian Climate Center. Both include sulfate aerosols and assume a gradual CO2 increase. Both DGVMs simulate a reduction of southwestern desert areas, a westward expansion of eastern deciduous forests, and the expansion of forests in the western part of the Pacific Northwest and in north-central California. Both DGVMs predict an increase in total biomass burnt in the next century, with a more pronounced increase under the Canadian scenario. Under the Hadley scenario, both DGVMs simulate increases in total carbon stocks. Under the Canadian scenario, both DGVMs simulate a decrease in live vegetation carbon. We identify similarities in model behavior due to the climate forcing and explain differences by the different structure of the models and their different sensitivity to CO2. We compare model output with data to enhance our confidence in their ability to simulate potential vegetation distribution and ecosystem processes. We compare changes in the area of drought-induced decreases in vegetation density with a spatial index derived from the Palmer Drought Severity Index to illustrate the ability of the vegetation to cope with water limitations in the future and the role of the CO2 fertilization effect.


英文关键词MC1 LPJ climate change fire carbon PDSI
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; Sweden ; Germany
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000183102900001
WOS关键词TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE MODEL ; NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; CO2 ENRICHMENT ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; BOUNDARY-LAYER ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; WATER-BALANCE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/144733
作者单位(1)Oregon State Univ, Forestry Sci Lab, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA;(2)US Forest Serv, Forestry Sci Lab, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA;(3)Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Climate Impacts Grp, S-22362 Lund, Sweden;(4)Potsdam Inst Cimate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Bachelet, D,Neilson, RP,Hickler, T,et al. Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States[J],2003,17(2).
APA Bachelet, D.,Neilson, RP.,Hickler, T.,Drapek, RJ.,Lenihan, JM.,...&Thonicke, K.(2003).Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States.GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES,17(2).
MLA Bachelet, D,et al."Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States".GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 17.2(2003).
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