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A two-dimensional groundwater flow model was constructed to investigate the long-term hydrologic impacts of Lake Nasser and the major land reclamation projects that use excess lake water in southwest Egypt. Egypt constructed (1964-1971) the Aswan High Dam, creating the Lake Nasser reservoir (length: 500 km; average width: 12 km) and is constructing the Tushka Canal to channel 5.0 x 10(9) m(3)/yr of Lake Nasser water to reclaim 0.5 x 10(6) acres of desert lands. The model, constrained by regional-scale groundwater flow and near-lake head data, was successfully calibrated to temporal-observation heads from 1970 to 2000 that reflect variations in lake levels. Predictive analyses for the subsequent 50-yr period were conducted by employing the calibrated model. Simulations of long-term effects, beyond year 2000, of Lake Nasser on recharge and temporal groundwater head (base case scenario) show that recharge from the lake will continue at a much slower rate than during the 30-yr period of 1970-2000 (with approximately 86% reduction in 30-yr recharge). The modest projected pumping and injection activities in the study area are not expected to cause major deviation in the overall head distribution compared to the base case scenario. The investigation of effects of the new irrigation land development on the Nubian aquifer indicated that many of the proposed irrigation areas, especially those with small aquifer thickness, will become fully saturated with introduced water, resulting in potential flooding and salinization. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.