Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.712
A comparison of methods to determine the onset of the growing season in northern Nigeria
Ati, OF; Stigter, CJ; Oladipo, EO
通讯作者Stigter, CJ
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
出版年2002
卷号22期号:6页码:731-742
英文摘要

In the sudan savanna of northern Nigeria, with its semi-arid climate, the ability to determine effectively or predict the start of actual productive rains cannot be overemphasized. Several methods exist for calculating the date of onset of the rains that may be taken as the start of the growing season. Five methods Currently ill use, which are relatively easy to apply oil a large scale, were selected for comparison. One is a traditional technique (Ramadan method), two use accumulated rainfall totals (Walter’s and Sivakumar’s methods), and two use rainfall-evapotranspiration relationships (Kowal’s and Benoit’s methods). For the period 1961-91, the traditional technique performed most poorly. Walter’s method gave quite early onsets and Sivakumar’s method gave very late onsets, thereby seriously shortening the growing season. Kowal’s and Benoit’s determinations fell most often in between the results of Walter’s and Sivakumar’s methods in their performance. However, although generally to a lesser extent than the other methods, they are still significantly affected by false starts. To avoid incorrectly predicting the growing season’s onset as far as possible, but to prevent an unacceptable shortening of the growing season, a combination of Kowal’s and Sivakumar’s criteria was used to develop an improved technique. This proved to work well for determining the onset date ill the Study area. However, because some false starts remain when using average onset dates, it is suggested that all operational advisory team should be constituted by the government. This team would be responsible for calculating onset dates in any year, on-line for the ongoing season, in a participatory approach with farmers, and for disseminating Such dates to the farmers. This could be done for any place for which the appropriate data can be made available. In the future, improved climate prediction skill may replace the classical probabilistic approaches presently Suffering from increasing rainfall variabilities. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.


英文关键词dry spells growing seasons methods to determine the onset of the growing season Nigeria (northern) onset of rains rainfall climate Sudan Savanna
类型Article
语种英语
国家Netherlands ; Nigeria
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000176177400007
WOS关键词RAINFALL ; AGROMETEOROLOGY ; FLUCTUATIONS ; NEEDS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/142812
作者单位(1)Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Environm Sci, TTMI African Liaison Off, TTMI Project, NL-6701 AP Wageningen, Netherlands;(2)Ahmadu Bello Univ, Dept Geog, TTMI Project, Zaria, Nigeria
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ati, OF,Stigter, CJ,Oladipo, EO. A comparison of methods to determine the onset of the growing season in northern Nigeria[J],2002,22(6):731-742.
APA Ati, OF,Stigter, CJ,&Oladipo, EO.(2002).A comparison of methods to determine the onset of the growing season in northern Nigeria.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,22(6),731-742.
MLA Ati, OF,et al."A comparison of methods to determine the onset of the growing season in northern Nigeria".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 22.6(2002):731-742.
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