干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

1 We model the potential vegetation and annual net primary production (NPP) of China on a 10’ grid under the present climate using the processed-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. The simulated distribution of the vegetation was in general in good agreement with the potential natural vegetation based on a numerical comparison between the two maps using the DeltaV statistic (DeltaV = 0.23). Predicted and measured NPP were also similar, especially in terms of biome-averages.

2 A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model including sulphate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario for 2070-2099. Simulated vegetation maps from two different CO2 scenarios (340 and 500 p.p.m.v.) were compared to the baseline biome map using DeltaV. Climate change alone produced a large reduction in desert, alpine tundra and ice/polar desert, and a general pole-ward shift of the boreal, temperate deciduous, warm-temperate evergreen and tropical forest belts, a decline in boreal deciduous forest and the appearance of tropical deciduous forest. The inclusion of CO2 physiological effects led to a marked decrease in moist savannas and desert, a general decrease for grasslands and steppe, and disappearance of xeric woodland/scrub. Temperate deciduous broadleaved forest, however, shifted north to occupy nearly half the area of previously temperate mixed forest.

3 The impact of climate change and increasing CO2 is not only on biogeography, but also on potential NPP. The NPP values for most of the biomes in the scenarios with CO2 set at 340 p.p.m.v. and 500 p.p.m.v. are greater than those under the current climate, except for the temperate deciduous forest, temperate evergreen broadleaved forest, tropical rain forest, tropical seasonal forest, and xeric woodland/scrub biomes. Total vegetation and total carbon is simulated to increase significantly in the future climate scenario, both with and without the CO2 direct physiological effect.

4 Our results show that the global process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3 can be used successfully at a regional scale.