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Germination of semi-arid Quercus is strongly correlated with the rainy season. However, the timing and amount of summer precipitation in the southwestern United States is extremely variable. Ongoing and impending changes in global and regional climates are likely to increase this variability. Specifically, anthropogenically induced changes in general circulation patterns may alter the seasonal distribution of precipitation in a directional manner. In addition to climatic variability, the inter-and intra-annual variability of Quercus emoryi Torr. (Emory oak) acorn maturation also is high. Therefore, in light of existing climatic variability and potential future climate change, we conducted a greenhouse experiment to investigate the effects of acorn maturation date and the timing of the onset of the ’monsoon’ on emergence of Q. emoryi seedlings.

Acorns were collected at weekly intervals in July of 1995 and 1996, planted in a greenhouse, and subjected to different watering treatments. Watering treatments were (1) acorns watered the same day as planting; (2) acorns watered two weeks after planting; (3) acorns watered four weeks after planting. Emergence in 1995 was significantly greater in the last week of acorn maturation and decreased significantly as time to the onset of the ’monsoon’ increased. Emergence in 1996 was very low, presumably because of soil moisture contents that were lower than those observed in 1995. The dependence of e. emoryi on water for emergence has profound implications for Q. emoryi recruitment in the face of current climatic variability and future climate change. Summers with a delayed ’monsoon’ and decreased soil moisture may severely constrain recruitment of this woody plant.