干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s42690-021-00627-z
	Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana
	Mviha, P. J. Z.; Holt, J.; Green, S., V
通讯作者	Holt, J (corresponding author), Imperial Coll, Ctr Environm Policy, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England.
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TROPICAL INSECT SCIENCE
ISSN	1742-7584
EISSN	1742-7592
出版年	2021-10
英文摘要	Based on a quantitative understanding of the environmental factors effecting armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis population dynamics, a hypothesis was formulated to explain the occurrence of outbreaks in some years and locations. The principles, expressed using a rule-based or qualitative model, were that nymph and adult survival and fecundity were reduced in years with uneven rainfall and that egg survival was reduced in years with a wet late-season as this is associated with increased egg predation and/or water-logging. The implication was that large egg banks resulted either when a large number of adults were present or when neither low fecundity nor high egg mortality were constraints. Such large egg banks were however predicted only to lead to outbreaks when there was an adequate amount of food for nymph and adult survival in the following season. Model predictions were compared with observed outbreaks of A. discoidalis between 1988 to 2002 for the three climatic zones of the east, central and western parts of southern Botswana. There was significant agreement between model predictions and observed outbreaks in two of the three zones (95% confidence interval of the kappa coefficient of agreement > 0). Taking the data for all three zones together and compared to the average outbreak frequency, an outbreak was three times more likely to occur when the model predicted an outbreak and six times less likely to occur when it predicted no outbreak.
英文关键词	Pest forecasting Simulation Rule-based model Semi-arid
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000712739300003
WOS关键词	RELIABILITY
WOS类目	Entomology
WOS研究方向	Entomology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/367588
作者单位	[Mviha, P. J. Z.] Univ Pretoria, Dept Zool & Entomol, South Africa & Chitedze Agr Res Stn, POB 158, Lilongwe 0002, Pretoria, Malawi; [Holt, J.; Green, S., V] Nat Resources Inst, Chatham ME4 4TB, Kent, England; [Holt, J.] Imperial Coll, Ctr Environm Policy, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England; [Green, S., V] 31 Naseby Rd, Belper DE56 0ER, Derby, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mviha, P. J. Z.,Holt, J.,Green, S., V. Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana[J],2021.
APA	Mviha, P. J. Z.,Holt, J.,&Green, S., V.(2021).Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TROPICAL INSECT SCIENCE.
MLA	Mviha, P. J. Z.,et al."Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TROPICAL INSECT SCIENCE (2021).