干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Evaluating the resilience of water resources management scenarios using the evidential reasoning approach: The Zarrinehrud river basin experience

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112025
	Evaluating the resilience of water resources management scenarios using the evidential reasoning approach: The Zarrinehrud river basin experience
	Behboudian, Massoud; Kerachian, Reza
通讯作者	Kerachian, R (corresponding author), Univ Tehran, Sch Civil Engn, Coll Engn, Tehran, Iran.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0301-4797
EISSN	1095-8630
出版年	2021
卷号	284
英文摘要	This paper introduces a new methodology for quantifying the total resilience of water resources management scenarios. The climate change impacts on water supply and demand have been investigated using a calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and a MODSIM water allocation model. Several criteria have been defined to measure five aspects of water resources systems resilience. The first aspect defines resilience as system strength against crossing a performance threshold (reliability). In the second aspect, if the system crosses the performance threshold, the recovery rate of the system after a disturbance is evaluated. The violation from the performance threshold has been measured as the third aspect (vulnerability), which considers the failure's severity. The fourth aspect is the resilience under extreme events with unknown occurrence probability, which includes four sub criteria, namely rapidity, robustness, resourcefulness, and redundancy (4 R). Finally, the fifth criterion considers the ecological condition of the system (ecological index). To compare water resources management scenarios (alternatives), an analytical evidential reasoning-based (ER) approach has been used. To show the applicability of the proposed methodology, it has been applied to the Zarrinehrud river basin, which is the leading water supplier of Lake Urmia in Iran. As one of the largest saline lakes globally, this lake has been suffering from drastic desertification and salinization in the past two decades. The grade-based results of the performance criteria are synthesized into a grade-based total resilience criterion to facilitate the comparison of water resources management scenarios. It is shown that a scenario which results in 40% reduction in agricultural water demand until 2023 has the highest resilience and an acceptable construction and operational cost.
英文关键词	Resiliency Zarrinehrud river basin Climate change MODSIM SWAT Evidential reasoning
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000621649800005
WOS关键词	DECISION-MAKING ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; VULNERABILITY ; RELIABILITY ; SYSTEM ; SUSTAINABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; ALGORITHM ; CRITERIA ; SUPPORT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350791
作者单位	[Behboudian, Massoud; Kerachian, Reza] Univ Tehran, Sch Civil Engn, Coll Engn, Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Behboudian, Massoud,Kerachian, Reza. Evaluating the resilience of water resources management scenarios using the evidential reasoning approach: The Zarrinehrud river basin experience[J],2021,284.
APA	Behboudian, Massoud,&Kerachian, Reza.(2021).Evaluating the resilience of water resources management scenarios using the evidential reasoning approach: The Zarrinehrud river basin experience.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,284.
MLA	Behboudian, Massoud,et al."Evaluating the resilience of water resources management scenarios using the evidential reasoning approach: The Zarrinehrud river basin experience".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 284(2021).