干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert

Arid

DOI	10.3389/fevo.2021.593167
	Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert
	Klinger, Rob; Underwood, Emma C.; McKinley, Randy; Brooks, Matthew L.
通讯作者	Klinger, R (corresponding author), US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, Oakhurst, CA 93644 USA.
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
ISSN	2296-701X
出版年	2021
卷号	9
英文摘要	The extent and frequency of fire has increased in many arid systems over the last century, with a large proportion of area in some regions undergoing transitions to novel conditions. Portions of the Mojave Desert in southwestern North America have undergone such transitions, most often from woody to herbaceous-dominated systems. These transitions have often been attributed to the proliferation of invasive annual grasses that promote more frequent fire, but recent evidence indicates that transitions can also occur independent of fire frequency if burn severity is high. In addition, high probability of ignition (i.e., potentially high fire frequency) and high burn severity may not always be geographically related. Therefore, our goals were to: (1) map potential burn severity, fire frequency, and probability of ignition across the Mojave; and, (2) evaluate spatial association among predicted burn severity, fire frequency and probability of ignition. We first mapped perimeters of 250 wildfires > 405 ha that occurred from 1972 to 2010, then extracted data on fire frequency (number of times burned from 1972 to 2010), burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio), and 15 predictor variables representing physiography, climate, ignition, and vegetation. Maximum entropy was used to predict probability of ignition and Random Forest models were used to predict dNBR and fire frequency. Areas with high burn severity and high ignition probability had opposite spatial trends; areas with high burn severity were predicted to predominantly be in the northwest part of the region whereas areas with high ignition probability were predicted to be in the northeast. The models indicate the existence of a number of spatially structured but temporally dynamic fire regimes throughout the Mojave Desert. Two prevalent and ecologically significant regimes include one with frequent fires of low to moderate severity and another with infrequent fire of high severity. Areas with high fire frequency are currently limited in extent (<1% total area). However, cover of invasive grasses can remain high decades after a burn of high or moderate severity, so grass-fire cycles could develop in areas where there may be expectations of infrequent fire as well as those with relatively high fire frequency.
英文关键词	fire regimes gradients heterogeneity invasive species grass-fire cycle machine learning point process models spatial dynamics
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000639010700001
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	United States Geological Survey ; University of California, Davis
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/350287
作者单位	[Klinger, Rob; Brooks, Matthew L.] US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, Oakhurst, CA 93644 USA; [Underwood, Emma C.] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA; [Underwood, Emma C.] Univ Southampton, Ctr Biol Sci, Southampton, Hants, England; [McKinley, Randy] US Geol Survey, Earth Resources Observat & Sci EROS Ctr, Sioux Falls, SD USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Klinger, Rob,Underwood, Emma C.,McKinley, Randy,et al. Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert[J]. United States Geological Survey, University of California, Davis,2021,9.
APA	Klinger, Rob,Underwood, Emma C.,McKinley, Randy,&Brooks, Matthew L..(2021).Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert.FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,9.
MLA	Klinger, Rob,et al."Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert".FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 9(2021).