Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran | |
Dehghan Sheida; Salehnia Nasrin; Sayari Nasrin; Bakhtiari Bahram | |
来源期刊 | Journal of Arid Land |
ISSN | 1674-6767 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 12期号:2页码:318-330 |
英文摘要 | Drought is one of the most significant environmental disasters, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Drought indices as a tool for management practices seeking to deal with the drought phenomenon are widely used around the world. One of these indicators is the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which is used in many parts of the world to assess the drought situation and continuation. In this study, the drought state of Fars Province in Iran was evaluated by using the PDSI over 1995-2014 according to meteorological data from six weather stations in the province. A statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to apply the output results of the general circulation model in Fars Province. To implement data processing and prediction of climate data, a statistical period 1995-2014 was considered as the monitoring period, and a statistical period 2019-2048 was for the prediction period. The results revealed that there is a good agreement between the simulated precipitation (R~2>0.63; R~2, determination coefficient; MAE<0.52; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE<0.56; RMSE, Root Mean Squared Error) and temperature (R~2>0.95, MAE<1.74, and RMSE<1.78) with the observed data from the stations. The results of the drought monitoring model presented that dry periods would increase over the next three decades as compared to the historical data. The studies showed the highest drought in the meteorological stations Abadeh and Lar during the prediction period under two future scenarios representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). According to the results of the validation periods and efficiency criteria, we suggest that the SDSM is a proper tool for predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions. |
英文关键词 | PDSI SDSM RCP4.5 RCP8.5 climate change extreme drought |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
收录类别 | CSCD |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
CSCD记录号 | CSCD:6696738 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/336279 |
作者单位 | Dehghan Sheida, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, 7616914111, Iran.; Sayari Nasrin, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, 7616914111, Iran.; Bakhtiari Bahram, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, 7616914111, Iran.; Salehnia Nasrin, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, 9177949207, Iran. |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dehghan Sheida,Salehnia Nasrin,Sayari Nasrin,et al. Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran[J],2020,12(2):318-330. |
APA | Dehghan Sheida,Salehnia Nasrin,Sayari Nasrin,&Bakhtiari Bahram.(2020).Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran.Journal of Arid Land,12(2),318-330. |
MLA | Dehghan Sheida,et al."Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran".Journal of Arid Land 12.2(2020):318-330. |
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