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DOI | 10.1142/S0218127418501523 |
A Practice-Oriented Bifurcation Analysis for Pulse Energy Converters. Part 4: Emergency Forecasting | |
Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna | |
通讯作者 | Kolokolov, Yury |
来源期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIFURCATION AND CHAOS |
ISSN | 0218-1274 |
EISSN | 1793-6551 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 28期号:12 |
英文摘要 | One of the most illustrative examples of promising applications of the practice-oriented bifurcation analysis concerns forecasting. We focus on emergency forecasting for pulse energy conversion systems (PEC-systems). In this case it becomes necessary to integrate regularities from both phase and parametrical spaces and demands on the operating stability and performance, taking into account the critical demand to uninterrupted analytics during steady states and transients. Thus so-called conflict-of-units between the notions used to understand natural evolution (for example, the evolution connected with the operating process) and the notions used to describe desirable artificial regimes (for example, the operating regime) should be resolved. With this purpose, we attract a specific integrating analytics (bifurcation-fractal analytics), the basis of which is provided by modified bifurcation diagrams arid fractal regularities. Here the fractal regularities mirror geometrical similarities between shapes of limit cycles and mirror regular dimensional modifications of these shapes with parametrical variation. Modified bifurcation diagrams provide the conciliation of the practicing and scientific notions without distortions and losses of the useful information from parametrical and phase spaces. Then multi-D conflict-free correspondence between causes (degradation of the operating process stability) and effects (changes of the operating regime characteristics) is established, and empirical recommendations on the operating performance can be substituted by clear nonlinear regularities. Fractal methods of real-time forecasting during transients are included in the discussion and their adaptation to the emergency forecasting is proposed. It opens a novel way on how to forecast the operating stability and performance on the common basis of nonlinear regularities which indicate the operating changes towards emergencies. The discussion is illustrated by computer-based and experimental examples. We believe that the results seem to be interesting to researchers in the field of the practice-oriented bifurcation analysis. |
英文关键词 | Modified bifurcation diagrams fractal regularities conflict-of-units integrating analytics uncertainty zones transients emergency forecasting abnormality prediction stability degradation stability margin ensembles of operating performance pulse energy conversion |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Russia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450496100013 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIPLE ATTRACTORS ; TIME-SERIES ; DYNAMICS ; SYSTEM ; MODEL ; STABILITY ; NETWORKS ; MOTIONS ; CHAOS |
WOS类目 | Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Mathematics ; Science & Technology - Other Topics |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/210140 |
作者单位 | Orel State Univ, Komsomolskaya 95, Oryol 302026, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kolokolov, Yury,Monovskaya, Anna. A Practice-Oriented Bifurcation Analysis for Pulse Energy Converters. Part 4: Emergency Forecasting[J],2018,28(12). |
APA | Kolokolov, Yury,&Monovskaya, Anna.(2018).A Practice-Oriented Bifurcation Analysis for Pulse Energy Converters. Part 4: Emergency Forecasting.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIFURCATION AND CHAOS,28(12). |
MLA | Kolokolov, Yury,et al."A Practice-Oriented Bifurcation Analysis for Pulse Energy Converters. Part 4: Emergency Forecasting".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIFURCATION AND CHAOS 28.12(2018). |
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